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  1. fred.stlouisfed.org › series › RECPROUSM156NSmoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - FRED | St. Louis Fed

    Hace 4 días · View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

  2. www.ceicdata.com › en › united-statesProbability of Recession: United States | Economic Indicators |...

    Hace 4 días · Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 3.909 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Apr 2024, with 532 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 74.678 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.304 % in Jan 1980.

  3. www.reuters.com › markets › usYield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch

    Hace 2 días · All six recessions going back to the mid-1970s, when the two-year/10-year yield curve can first be traced, have also followed inversion. But the problem is timing the turn.

  4. seekingalpha.com › article › 4698096-the-fed-preview-hawkish-turn-straight-intoThe Fed Preview: Hawkish Turn Straight Into The Recession

    Hace 3 horas · The Fed's hawkish shift implies fewer interest rate cuts in 2024 and a potential bear market for the S&P500 due to a higher-until-recession policy. Read more here.

  5. www.forbes.com › advisor › investingJune 2024 Stock Market Outlook – Forbes Advisor

    Hace 4 días · The New York Fed’s recession probability model suggests there is still a 50% chance of a U.S. recession sometime within the next 12 months.