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14 de oct. de 2019 · The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a...
Hace 4 días · View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
5 de abr. de 2024 · US Recession Probability is at 58.31%, compared to 58.31% last month and 57.77% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 14.71%.
The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions. An overview of using the yield curve as a forecasting tool. The article explains how the yield curve significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
Hace 3 días · Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to May 2024 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.
28 de jun. de 2022 · High inflation, rising interest rates, shaky economic activity and volatile markets have raised the probability that the U.S. economy will slip into a recession, according to economists.
20 de dic. de 2022 · The probability of a downturn in 2023 climbed from 65% odds in November and is more than double what it was six months ago, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The...
