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Samotsvety Forecasting. We are a group of forecasters with a great track record working on applying forecasting to impactful questions. We hope to improve the forecasting ecosystem. Wait, no, we are a forecasting team, not a Soviet Union band.
- track record - Samotsvety
Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15,...
- Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to...
- track record - Samotsvety
Samotsvety (Russian: Самоцветы, which means "Semiprecious Stones") is a Soviet VIA band formed in 1971, in Moscow. It became one of the more successful and better known VIA bands, recording a number of hits and serving as a springboard to fame for several Russian musicians, including Dmitry Malikov , Vladimir Presnyakov Sr ...
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 (2022/10/03) This writeup was originally posted on the EA Forum, which has some good discussion. After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to update our probabilities of nuclear war. In March 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, we were at ~ 0.01% that London would be hit with a ...
13 de feb. de 2024 · Samotsvety is a community of forecasters who use Slack, Infer, and other platforms to make probabilistic predictions on geopolitical and other topics. Learn how they became the best at forecasting, what methods they use, and why they are named after a Soviet rock band.
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022. Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts. Prediction Markets in the Corporate Setting. GJO Calibration app. Micro-grants for forecasting. Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting.
