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  1. fred.stlouisfed.org › series › RECPROUSM156NSmoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - FRED | St. Louis Fed

    Hace 4 días · View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

    • Usrec

      Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession...

  2. www.businessinsider.com › recession-outlook-stock-market-crash-economy-hardRecession Outlook: Unprecedented Indicators Flashing As Stimulus...

    14 de may. de 2024 · The US economy and stock market are on a clear path to recession, Paul Dietrich said. The B. Riley Wealth strategist pointed to a handful of warning signs that suggest a coming downturn. The...

  3. www.reuters.com › markets › usYield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch

    Hace 2 días · All six recessions going back to the mid-1970s, when the two-year/10-year yield curve can first be traced, have also followed inversion. But the problem is timing the turn.

  4. www.ceicdata.com › en › united-statesProbability of Recession: United States | Economic Indicators |...

    Hace 5 días · Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 3.909 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Apr 2024, with 532 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 74.678 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.304 % in Jan 1980.

  5. www.newyorkfed.org › markets › data-hubMarkets Data Dashboard - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

    Hace 3 días · Data are updated weekly. Historical Transaction Data: Includes details on open market, securities lending, and foreign currency transactions.Data are published quarterly, about two years after the transaction was conducted, in accordance with the Dodd-Frank Act.

  6. alfred.stlouisfed.org › seriesNBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the...

    23 de may. de 2024 · The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough.